If you’re trying to “time” Charleston, you’re not alone. I hear it from locals considering a move-up home and from out-of-state buyers watching from the sidelines: “What’s 2026 going to look like? Is it going to get cheaper? Are we going to see another surge?”
Here’s the best way to think about 2026 in Charleston: it’s likely to be a lower-drama year than people expect, with fewer extremes and more negotiating room—while still staying competitive in the neighborhoods everyone wants.
The baseline national outlook (because it matters locally)
Charleston isn’t isolated from the national economy. Mortgage rates, consumer confidence, the government, and lending standards shape what buyers can do here.
Some major forecasts going into 2026 anticipate:
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Mortgage rates averaging in the low-to-mid 6% range
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Home prices rising modestly (not skyrocketing, think more like 1-2%)
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Inventory continuing to recover (a rising trend from the February 2022 low)
The message across credible forecasters is consistent: not a “boom,” not a “bust”—more of a “reset toward normal.”
What “normal” looks like in Charleston specifically
Charleston’s normal has always been different than many cities because we’re powered by lifestyle demand: beaches, historic charm, food culture, boating, golf, and a year-round outdoors scene. We also have strong relocation patterns and second-home interest.
That demand tends to create a floor under certain areas even when the market cools nationally.
But the type of demand matters. In 2026, I expect Charleston to behave like a market where:
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Buyers are picky and payment-conscious
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Turnkey (updated and maintained) homes command a premium
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Cosmetic-fixer homes can sell well ONLY if priced appropriately
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Overpriced listings take longer and require adjustments
The local indicators that matter most (and what they’re already telling us)
The Charleston Trident MLS snapshot recently showed a market where:
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Median price was basically flat/slightly up year-over-year
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Inventory and months supply increased
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Days on market increased
That’s a classic “normalizing” pattern: more options, longer decision cycles, and a market that rewards correct pricing and good condition.
The Charleston reality: we don’t have one 2026 market—we have several
If you’re looking downtown, the buyer pool is different than Summerville. If you’re on Daniel Island, the supply dynamics are different than Park Circle. If you’re waterfront, insurance and flood risk conversations become a bigger part of the decision.
So instead of one big prediction, I frame 2026 for clients like this:
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Entry-level and “first move” homes: likely to remain competitive, because demand for affordability never disappears.
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Move-up family homes in strong school zones: steady demand, but buyers will negotiate harder.
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Luxury: more sensitive to stock market confidence, second-home timing, and “must be perfect” expectations.
What could surprise us in 2026
The biggest swing factor is rates. If rates drift down even modestly, more buyers re-enter the market. If rates stay sticky, transaction volume stays muted and sellers have to work harder.
Also: new construction incentives could play a bigger role, especially in areas seeing steady building. National outlooks suggest builders may lean into incentives (rate buydowns, closing costs) to keep momentum going.
The 2026 takeaway
Charleston in 2026 is most likely a “balanced but still desirable” market. More negotiating room than the frenzy years, but not a market where good homes sit forever or prices collapse across the board. Charleston’s best locations will still behave like Charleston: they’ll hold attention.
By: Dustin Guthrie, Realtor
📞 Call/Text (843) 697-7757
📧 [email protected]
📸 Instagram @dustin_guthrie_realtor
